Friday, July 28, 2006

A Top In The Poker Market?

As many of you know I enjoy exploring fads - like the poker fad that has spread around the world.

In fact this blog started as a poker blog - The Tsunami Hitchhiker. I played in games, read the books, immersed myself in the early stages of mania.

I won some tournaments and became fairly proficient as a "rounder." I even ended at the final table at a couple of larger events. One tournament I particularly enjoyed was one in Vegas for poker bloggers. Some had turned pro, most were quite good - it was a lot of fun, and the last tournament I played.

The Fad was in full swing - and growing quickly.

One method of spotting a fad's top is to watch magazine counters. When I started playing poker, the only magazine was filled with ads, and given away in poker rooms. I mentioned early on in this blog, when you find many poker magazines - the fad will probably be topping.

We are there.

This also brings up a sad point, this may be one of the last fads where my magazine indicator will work. Print media is withering as instant in depth information is increasingly accessed on the Internet.

In fact many new fads are going to be Internet based.

A fad starts because a few leaders start in a direction - and with insufficient information others follow to try and discover the attraction. Motion breeds more motion - and the fad takes on a life of its own.

While poker has been a fad, I think it will diminish like baseball card trading more than like pogs or bennie babies. It will continue at a slower pace, but those that have discovered poker - including grade school kids, will not abandon poker in a wholesale way.

Expect flurries of revival in poker playing, it will be around for a long time.

Unless

During a slow period politicos may seek to find favor with some vocal constituents and ban it altogether. They have made threats for years during the fads growth - and done nothing - once the poker boom subsides however - they may suddenly see a chance for publicity.

Did you know that slavery was banned in England before the American civil war? The industrial age destroyed the economics of slavery in developed nations - that is when the
powers that be felt secure in banning it - after it was weak and dying anyway.

Poker may fall to the same fate.

.

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