Sunday, March 27, 2005

Cure your blind mind


Made you look.

Back to reality. Here is a quote from the opinion page at Junior Partner;

"All people very strongly interpret evidence as supportive of what they believe, or want to believe. Just look at politics. All people also strongly downplay or ignore evidence contrary to their beliefs. An open mind is an elusive delight."

Psychological tests have been made, I forget the exact statistics, but around 85% of a persons response to an article can be projected just by knowing their political affiliation. When shown a made up article and facts about Iran, the researchers knew in advance, with high probability, if a person would believe it or doubt it by knowing if the person were Democrat or Republican.

Finance and poker? Ah yes.

In Finance there are massive belief systems that permeate investor's decision process. Now oil is important, the trade deficit is not. The twenty year run of the stock market to 2000 makes people even now believe stocks always go up. If you pick up a "how to make a million" book from the past, you will find them watching the front page of the news for information we ignore today. Reality is not the fad that media is quoting, it is the overall action and inter-relationships that form the backdrop to the news. That make me a fundamentalist investor long term. Short term the little squiggles caused by myopic investors determine entry and exit points.

In poker there are belief systems, equally poorly developed, that guide most of the inexperienced. Using pot odds on the flop in a no limit game with no reference to the implied odds of stack size is one example. Those who lack understanding of poker theory for the specific game they are in, are bringing a knife to a gun fight.

Listen to what people complain about in poker and investments, that is an indicator of what is important now. Use a broader view of reality to gain advantage.

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