Monday, March 14, 2005


Just a quick note on something you will hear from both day traders and poker players.

The first loss is the best loss.

As an investor your long term profitability is determined by your willingness to take many small losses, and letting your profits run. As a poker player your long term profitability is equally effected by your willingness to throw away marginal hands and small bets until you acquire a strong hand, then pushing it hard.

A speculator or a poker player that can't let go when things turn bad is going to lose over the long term. The worst thing for a new player in either discipline is to win early by luck.

The cost of lessons just went up. If you discover a false precept and it works once or twice, you may have a hard time unlearning it. It's not what we don't know that hurts us, It's what we know, and we are wrong that lays the trap.

Learn to take the small loss often. Make the almost sure thing a big bet. If the reason you got in changes, better out a small lose than sorry a big loss.

Charity Shill

Bastiat Free University
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